Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the political, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in academia but scarcely any government figures or advocates are willing to participate even with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the status quo. They writes two articles that strive for neutrality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates encompass national emblems, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent official who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he stated. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will in the end lose but each side has got important lessons to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
